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Monday, September 27, 2010

The Perfect Hedge Against The Falling US Economy from Zurich Planners

What is a really good hedge against the falling U.S. economy?

Did you watch Obama's "town hall" style meeting on CNBC last Monday? You know, the very same day the NBER came out and said "the recession ended in June of 2009". Of course they are the same organization that said we wouldn't have a recession, then in the depths of it said we weren't in one, and some 15 months later they come out on the very day Obama was preaching how grand his plan to fix things is, and they say it ended! I would not put too much faith in that outfit.

Next up was Warren Buffet. CNBC likes having him on because everyone considers him to be such a great investor, and because he owns so many businesses, tell you how great America is and how we should not worry, just buy stocks and relax. Well when asked about the economy, he told CNBC that by his own "common sense" definition, America is "still in a recession. I think we're in a recession until real per capita GDP gets back to where it was before."

Now, either those at NBER (the ones who said we're no where close to a recession in 2007 and 2008) are dead wrong, or Warren Buffet is dead wrong. Who would you believe/

There was a lot of talk about whether we are going to double dip, but we can't double dip because we never recovered from the original recession. If you're in a 12 foot hole and you climb up the side and now you're just 5 feet down, you're still in the hole. Now apply that to our economy. TARP, war spending, cash for clunkers, cash for caulk, cash for you name it, enabled us to climb up the hole a bit. But we ain't out. No jobs showed up, the work week didn't get longer, the capacity utilization didn't expand. All we did was pump up some economic purchasing and got a few quarters of subpar growth.

High unemployment may last for a long time because of the sluggish economy, bad politics and advances in technology, Jack Welch, author of "Straight from the Gut," told CNBC Thursday. President Barack Obama's administration has an "anti-business" bias which manifests itself through intimidation, trade, taxes and regulation, Welch also said. "Our businesses across the board look like 1.5-2 percent gross domestic product (advance) businesses," he said. "The facts are in most businesses there's 20 to 25 percent excess capacity that they can fill in without adding any new people," Welch added.

So now we also have Jack Welch also saying that things are a mess, we have excess capacity, and an anti-business President. Do you think it's by accident the NBER said what they said, when they said it? We think not.

1 comment:

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