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Thursday, July 1, 2010

Consumer Confidence Takes A Header

Look at this recent headline from the other morning:

"8:33 AM June ISM New York Business Index: 69.3 vs. 89.9 in May. The 20.6-point drop was to be expected because the May level of expansion wasn't sustainable, but future optimism was less broad based than in prior months."

Guess that's how they'd also explained away the Richmond and Philly Fed numbers when they were released. So, it's not only business people that are pulling in their bullish horns, it appears consumers are too as indicated when Consumer Confidence crashed last month too. 99% of the analysts on CNBC have been telling us that the consumer was fine, and everything was on the mend. Maybe that isn't quite so accurate! Sure people were happy when they were getting 99 weeks of unemployment insurance, strategically defaulting on their home loans and living fat while sitting on the couch drinking booze purchased with food stamps, or in the case of California taking their welfare checks to the ATM machines at the casino. But when the government cuts back a bit on the programs, "consumer confidence falls". Who would have thunk!?

American history is full of examples where it's had huge dips in the economy, followed by some form of expansive rise. So, we realize that after the 2008 - 09 meltdown, the majority of people think they've seen the worse and it's time for the next big move up to happen once again. We notice this all the time. People say that we're still pretty weak, but very soon, all will be great. We then inquire "why", but they have no real answer, except that it's always worked that way. So they feel if it always turned out that way, it will once again. If we say that this time it will be different, we get a dazed look, a frown or what have you. This is a big mistake on their part because this time it will be different. Hugely different. Those are scary words, but pay attention to them because the Big Pain is still coming.....!!!!

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