Wednesday, July 21, 2010
FinReg passed. This is economic suicide...
Saturday, July 10, 2010
A 401K is becoming a tool for survival...!!!

If we toss together a huge salad made up of retiring boomers and people pulling 401K's to survive.. and then chop up some real ugly economic news such as no jobs, more housing foreclosures, falling retail sales, states going bankrupt, pension plans getting reworked, and commercial real estate beginning it's plunge to zero.. the pressure on the equity market creates forces that I don't believe it can weather.
We just learned that in the week of July 1 we saw 11 billion dollars come out of stock funds. Some of that was simply nervous investors wanting to pull back if the market sours more. But some of that is indeed "broke people" looking for income any where they can get it. If they can't refi their house and take a cash out refi, if they have no job, and they just ran out of unemployment bennies, how long is Mom and Dad going to float them if indeed Mom and Dad are still around? Not long. Now that 401K looks more like a tool for survival in the present versus some retirement plan in the future.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Consumer Confidence Takes A Header
"8:33 AM June ISM New York Business Index: 69.3 vs. 89.9 in May. The 20.6-point drop was to be expected because the May level of expansion wasn't sustainable, but future optimism was less broad based than in prior months."
Guess that's how they'd also explained away the Richmond and Philly Fed numbers when they were released. So, it's not only business people that are pulling in their bullish horns, it appears consumers are too as indicated when Consumer Confidence crashed last month too. 99% of the analysts on CNBC have been telling us that the consumer was fine, and everything was on the mend. Maybe that isn't quite so accurate! Sure people were happy when they were getting 99 weeks of unemployment insurance, strategically defaulting on their home loans and living fat while sitting on the couch drinking booze purchased with food stamps, or in the case of California taking their welfare checks to the ATM machines at the casino. But when the government cuts back a bit on the programs, "consumer confidence falls". Who would have thunk!?
American history is full of examples where it's had huge dips in the economy, followed by some form of expansive rise. So, we realize that after the 2008 - 09 meltdown, the majority of people think they've seen the worse and it's time for the next big move up to happen once again. We notice this all the time. People say that we're still pretty weak, but very soon, all will be great. We then inquire "why", but they have no real answer, except that it's always worked that way. So they feel if it always turned out that way, it will once again. If we say that this time it will be different, we get a dazed look, a frown or what have you. This is a big mistake on their part because this time it will be different. Hugely different. Those are scary words, but pay attention to them because the Big Pain is still coming.....!!!!